System Dynamics Analysis of a Green Certificate-Carbon-Electricity Tri-Market Trading System: A Comprehensive Framework for Sustainable Energy Integration

In pursuit of carbon neutrality and achieving a carbon peak, mechanisms including tradable green certificate (TGC) trading, carbon emission trading (CET), and power trading are critical for reducing emissions within China’s power industry. Based on the system dynamics (SD) method, this paper establishes a trading model of green certificate-carbon-electricity three-market coupling system, studies the development trend of different types of generator sets, and studies the influence of renewable energy consumption responsibility weight (RECRW), carbon emission allowance (CEA) auction ratio and CEA tightening coefficient on the system. Results indicate that under the environment of the integrated TGC, carbon, and electricity markets, the installed capacity of green power units will significantly increase and gradually surpass that of thermal power. The growth rate of green power prices will tend to stabilize as the installed capacity increases. Additionally, adjustments to the CEA auction ratio and the RECRW will each have an effect on the prices of carbon and green certificates.