Estimation and Prediction of Carbon Mitigation Potential for Photovoltaic Curtain Walls Based on Urban Building and Solar Radiation Data

With the increasing impact of global climate change and the rising demand for energy, building-integrated photo-voltaics (BIPV) are gamering significant attention. Photovoltaic (PV) curtain walls, a vital component of BIPV, play a crucial role in the transition to sustainable energy. However, accurately estimating the area of PV curtain walls poses a challenge, complicating the assessment of their carbon mitigation potential. To address this problem, this paper introduces a method for estimating and predicting the carbon mitigation potential of PV curtain walls. Firstly, a power generation estimation method for PV curtain walls is developed. This method is based on building and solar radiation data to calculate their installable area and power output. Subsequently, the estimation and prediction of carbon mitigation potential are achieved using the baseline emission factor and Holt’s exponential smoothing method. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated through three typical cities in China. After calculation, the volume of the carbon mitigation potential of the three cities is 5.16 MT, 8.31MT, and 5.56 MT, respectively. This paper offers valuable insights for policymakers and architects, aiding in the promotion of PV curtain walls in urban areas. By doing so, it contributes to the achievement of sustainable development goals focused on green and low-carbon growth.