How Do Temporal and Geographical Kernels Differ in Reflecting Regional Disparities? Insights from a Case Study in China

Rapid economic growth in China has brought about a significant challenge: the widening gap in regional development. Addressing this disparity is crucial for ensuring sustainable development. However, existing studies have largely overlooked the intrinsic spatial and temporal dynamics of regional disparities on various levels. This study thus employed five advanced multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression models—GWR, MGWR, GTWR, MGTWR, and STWR—to analyze the spatio-temporal relationships between ten key conventional socio-economic indicators and per capita GDP across different administrative levels in China from 2000 to 2019. The findings highlight a consistent increase in regional disparities, with secondary industry emerging as a dominant driver of long-term economic inequality among the indicators analyzed. While a clear inland-to-coastal gradient underscores the persistence of regional disparity determinants, areas with greater economic disparities exhibit pronounced spatio-temporal heterogeneity. Among the models, STWR outperforms others in capturing and interpreting local variations in spatio-temporal disparities, demonstrating its utility in understanding complex regional dynamics. This study provides novel insights into the spatio-temporal determinants of regional economic disparities, offering a robust analytical framework for policymakers to address region-specific variables driving inequality over time and space. These insights contribute to the development of targeted and dynamic policies for promoting balanced and sustainable regional growth.