A Proposal For A Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Risk Framework With Optimal Cost Balance For The Maritime Industry

The maritime industry has played a vital role in international trade since the earliest periods of human history, facilitating the movement of approximately 90% of global trade. Modern ships are increasingly equipped with sophisticated computing infrastructure to enhance navigation, communication, and operational efficiency. This technological evolution has transformed maritime operations, providing numerous advantages such as improved safety, efficiency, and communication. However, the integration of advanced computer systems also introduces significant cyber threats, which can compromise vessel operations, safety, and security. This study proposes a comprehensive cyber risk framework tailored for the maritime industry, employing Monte Carlo simulation to analyze and quantify risks for each vessel component. The risk calculation is based on the MITRE Common Attack Pattern Enumeration and Classification (CAPEC) database, providing a detailed and structured approach to identifying potential cyber threats. The study utilizes the Multiplicative Effect Approach in its cyber risk analysis methods, allowing for a nuanced understanding of how various risk factors interact and amplify the overall risk profile. The framework is designed to help maritime companies prioritize risk mitigation efforts, ensuring that available funds are allocated in a manner that maximizes risk reduction. By simulating various scenarios and their potential impacts, the framework provides actionable insights into the most effective cybersecurity measures. This approach enables maritime organizations to develop targeted strategies for enhancing their cyber resilience, ultimately contributing to the safety and reliability of global maritime trade.