Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment associated with induced seismicity at geothermal sites in the Upper Rhine Graben (Southern Germany)

Abstract The extraction of geothermal energy is associated with induced seismicity. Depending on the extraction parameters, such as injection pressure and volume, the induced seismicity is time-dependent. We investigate the case of the two geothermal power plants of Insheim and Landau, which are located in the Upper Rhine Graben in Southwest Germany. The induced seismicity was observed by a local seismic network consisting of a total of 19 stations, resulting in an earthquake catalog comprising 930 events for the Landau reservoir and 1985 events for the Insheim reservoir, both between 2012 and 2022. Based on this earthquake catalog, seismic source areas are defined for both reservoirs, and a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is performed. Using temporal subsets of the earthquake catalog, PSHA can also be performed for shorter time ranges, resulting in larger expected PGV values in times of higher induced seismicity. The seismic velocity profiles obtained by site effect studies based on ambient seismic noise measurements highlight relatively large variations of the site effects on short scales in the area. The consequences of these lateral variations on the seismic hazard assessment are also discussed.