Prospective life-cycle assessment of sustainable alternatives for road freight transport

This study investigates decarbonization pathways for the road freight transport sector by evaluating three alternatives to conventional diesel trucks: trucks powered by biofuels, battery electric trucks, and fuel cell trucks with hydrogen. A prospective life cycle assessment of these options is conducted under two policy scenarios for decarbonization across 12 distinct regions over the century. Employing a cradle-to-grave approach, the assessment covers activities from fuel and electricity production to the end-of-life of truck components. Findings reveal that, in eight of the 12 regions examined, an early transition to battery electric trucks could increase life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 70 % by 2030 compared to the continued use of conventional diesel trucks, underscoring the significance of liquid fuels for short to medium-term decarbonization. However, in the long term, as electricity mixes and hydrogen production are decarbonized, battery electric trucks and hydrogen fuel cell trucks emerge as superior alternatives in all regions, emitting, at least, 29 % less greenhouse gases than trucks powered by biofuels, and 45 % less than diesel trucks. The optimal transition from conventional diesel trucks to trucks powered by biofuels and, subsequently, to battery electric trucks and/or hydrogen could avoid 134–204 Gt CO 2 eq worldwide and prevent a temperature rise of 0.22–0.33 °C compared to the diesel-based scenario. This emphasizes the crucial role of appropriate policies for the timely transformation of the road freight transport sector. Despite this, battery and hydrogen trucks can impact human health up to 239–1200 % more than diesel, which is not to be taken lightly. • Biofuels are the best option for reducing GHGs in the sector until 2025–2080. • Hydrogen trucks can emit from 54 % less to 444 % more GHGs than biofuels by 2100. • BETs are a safer option for late decades, emitting 28–31 % less GHGs than biofuels. • An optimal transition between the options could avoid 0.22–0.33 °C warming by 2100. • Battery and hydrogen trucks can be 239–1200 % worse for human health than diesel.