Time Series Methods and Business Intelligent Tools for Budget Planning—Case Study

Corporate budget planning involves forecasting expenses and revenues to support strategic goals, resource allocation, and supply chain coordination. Regular updates to forecasts and collaboration across organizational levels ensure adaptability to changing business conditions. Long-term sales forecasts form the foundation for budgeting, guiding resource allocation and enhancing financial efficiency. The budgeting process in organizations is complex and requires data from various operational areas, which is collected over a representative period. Key inputs include quantitative sales data, direct costs indirect costs, and historical revenues and profitability, which are often sourced from ERP systems. While ERP systems typically provide tools for basic budgeting, they lack advanced capabilities for forecasting and simulation. We proposed a solution, which includes dynamic demand forecasting based on time series methods such as Build-in method in Power BI (which is ETS—exponential smoothing), linear regression, XGBoost, ARIMA and flexible product groupings, which are simulations for cost changes. The case study concerns a manufacturing company in the mass customization industry. The solution is designed to be intuitive and easily implemented in the business.