Impact of rainfall variability on cereal yield in the Fez-Meknes region (Morocco)

The Fez-Meknes region is distinguished by its agricultural vocation and its emergence as a hub in the agro-food industry.This study aims to assess the main crop yield, production, and percentage of the agricultural area within each province of the Fez-Meknes region from 2000 to 2020, based on an analysis of descriptive statistics and cartography data.The objective is to determine the national ranking of autumn cereals within the region.Then, multiple linear regression between precipitation and cereal yield in the region's provinces was established, and the trend in sown areas and cereal yield was analysed using the Man Kendall test.The results revealed that the area sown to autumn cereals accounted for 15% of the national cereal area.Despite that, regional cereal production is ranked second nationally after the Casablanca-Settat region, with a small difference that does not exceed 1.5%.Regarding regional provinces, Taounate and Taza account for almost half of the region's cereal production.The correlation coefficient between monthly precipitation and cereal yield ranged from 0.51 in Boulmane province to 0.84 in Fez and Moulay Yaacoub province.The coefficient of determination ranged from 0.21 in Boulmane province to 0.70 in Fez province.On the other hand, precipitation in November, December, January, and March had the greatest impact on cereal yields.The differences between observed and estimated yields using multiple regression are acceptable in all region's provinces, especially when only one predictor was retained.Finally, the Man-Kendall test indicates that the area sown to autumn cereals has a slight downward trend of 4965 ha/year, with a significance of = 0.07.However, cereal yield also tends to increase by 0.34 q/year with a p-value = 0.12.