Spatiotemporal Evolution and PLUS Simulation Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in the Southern Jiangsu Urban Agglomeration Based on Land Use Changes

In recent years, rapid urbanization in the Southern Jiangsu urban area has significantly altered land use patterns, impacting local ecosystem service value (ESV). This study examines land use changes (LUCs) from 2000 to 2020 and assesses ESV changes with the equivalent factor method. The PLUS model is also used to project future LUCs in line with the “Land and Space Planning of Jiangsu Province (2021–2035)”. The simulation considers scenarios for natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS), farmland protection (FPS), and comprehensive development (CDS) for the year 2035. The research findings show that over the past two decades, urbanized areas have persistently grown, whereas there has been a steady decline in the extents of farmland, forested areas, and grasslands. The total ESV has shown a decreasing trend, with the spatial distribution of ESV exhibiting higher values in the eastern regions and lower values in the west. The relationship between land use and ESV is negative, as evidenced by both the comprehensive land use (LA) and the Moran’s I index. Scenario predictions reveal that farmland, forest land, and grassland show a decreasing trend under the NDS, while it is the opposite under the EPS. The FPS is predominant in farmland area, and all land types in the CDS comply with national land planning requirements. Overall, the research findings reveal and predict the influence of LUCs on ESV in the study area under four scenarios, which is beneficial optimizing regional resource planning schemes and formulating ecological compensation policies.