Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent. (JEL F13, F14, F23, L14)