Analysis of Population Flow Changes in Red Tourism Counties of China Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Mobile Signaling Data

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the tourism industry, particularly red tourism. This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and dynamics of population flow in red tourism counties during the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods, aiming to provide valuable insights for sustainable red tourism planning and policy formulation. This study covers 180 red tourism counties across 20 provinces in China, utilizing mobile signaling data from May and October of 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. The results show that, in 2023, the total population inflow to red tourism counties reached 4448.85 × 104, with a notable spatial disparity, mainly concentrated in northern and central regions, such as Beijing, Linyi, and Liu’an. The inflow was primarily from eastern and central provinces, such as Guangdong, Hebei, and Henan, with these areas showing substantially higher visitation than western and northeastern regions. These inflows were strongly influenced by geographic proximity and transportation accessibility, with a significant increase during holiday periods reflecting the role of tourism policies in shaping mobility patterns. From 2018 to 2023, population dynamics fluctuated significantly due to the pandemic, with a strong recovery by 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 1332.26 × 104. The recovery rates varied regionally, with areas such as Inner Mongolia and Qinghai showing substantial growth, while provinces such as Beijing and Shanxi showed slower recovery. These findings underscore the enduring appeal of red tourism and highlight the effectiveness of targeted policy interventions. However, regional disparities in recovery rates suggest that focused efforts are needed to ensure balanced and sustainable red tourism development.