An Integrated Model to Prospectively Assess the Environmental Impact of Tourism: Empirical Application to the Earth’s Third Pole National Park

Sustainable tourism requires preventing the environmental impact (EI) of tourist activities. The predictive assessment of EI at an early stage is conducive to the prevention of EI caused by tourism. To acquire adequate insight into the EI of planned tourist activities and promote EI prevention in advance, this study integrates the Relative Risk Model with the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix to develop an integrated model that predictively assesses and compares the EIs from different contributors along the EI formation path. To demonstrate the model, a study was conducted in the Earth’s Third Pole National Park. The results of this study show that (1) this model allows for the clear identification and comparison of the characteristics of EI formation across different tourist activities. This allows for defining a priority order for developing different tourist activities in terms of environmental conservation, thereby identifying relatively suitable activities. (2) In different stages of EI formation, the main contributors to EI can be discerned by this model, thereby defining the key targets of EI prevention in the whole EI process. (3) The EIs that different receptors carry can be compared using this model, thereby selecting the main receptors carrying higher EI as principal protected objects. In summary, in tourism development, assessing EI with this method helps predict the EI from different contributors, guide sustainable tourism development, and promote environmental care at an early stage.