Big data analytics for seasonal crop patterns: integrating machine learning techniques

This study addresses the challenge of predicting rice growing season lengths, crucial for agricultural planning in tropical regions. Climate variability and season timing create uncertainties in decision-making, and while machine learning is widely used in agriculture, a gap persists in integrating spatial-temporal data for accurate season length prediction and region-specific pattern analysis influenced by rainfall. Using a combination of Random Forest algorithms with hyperparameter optimization (grid search), and clustering techniques such as PCA, K-Means, and Hierarchical Clustering, this study analyzes key features such as the start of the season (SOS), end of the season (EOS), and their significance indicators (sig_sos and sig_eos). The findings reveal a strong correlation (0.98) between SOS and EOS, with an optimal growing season ranging from day 93 to day 207 (113.82 days). The Random Forest model, optimized with Grid Search, achieved a MSE of 28.9474 and an R2 of 0.8636, showing an outstanding predictive result. SHAP and LIME analyses identified sos and eos as the most influential predictors, while cluster analysis highlighted three distinct growing season groups characterized by variations in rainfall and seasonal stability. These results underscore the importance of understanding localized agricultural conditions and provide actionable insights for optimizing planting schedules, resource allocation, and climate adaptation strategies. By integrating advanced machine learning techniques with spatial-temporal data, this study establishes a foundation for improving agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate variability