Beneficiaries of the low-carbon agenda: economic analysis

The article studies the impact of intensive decarbonization on the economic dynamics of large GHGs emitting countries based on a unified methodological approach and complex modeling tools. The most important factors determining the economic efficiency of decarbonization policies are the level of economic development, the sectoral and technological structure of the economy, and dependence on energy imports. For several developing countries, ambitious decarbonization scenarios imply quite serious losses in GDP. The beneficiaries of the low-carbon agenda are the EU and China, where the rise in prices necessary to recoup decarbonization costs is offset by a reduction in hydrocarbon imports and an increase in revenues in industries shaping the low-carbon economy. Russia is characterized by medium sensitivity to ambitious decarbonization. Russia’s competitive advantages lie in the significant potential for relatively inexpensive measures and a high share of low-carbon sources of electricity generation.