Management of territorial risks of development and security of social-natural-technogenic systems

The relevance of the study is due to the need to provide the governing bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation with tools that allow identifying key problems and priority areas for sustainable development of the socio-, eco- and technosphere of each territory, taking into account the characteristics of natural and geographical conditions, industrial potential, population, and infrastructure. An approach to constructing a mathematical model for managing territorial development risks is proposed using municipalities as an example. A municipality is considered as a socio-natural-technogenic system characterized by a set of basic risks of the socio-, eco- and technosphere, and the security of the socio-natural-technogenic system is a property of a territorial entity taking into account interrelated development risks. The authors argue that reducing complex risk is possible by increasing the security of the territory. Quantitative assessments of the level of complex risk for three large cities of the Siberian Federal District were made, and the values of risk change with an increase in security were obtained.