PLS-PM Model for Sustainable Development of Ecotourism: Case Study of Ulytau Nature Park

Abstract This article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the development of ecotourism in the Ulytau Nature Park, Kazakhstan. The authors use an integrated methodology that combines quantitative (statistical analysis) and qualitative (Analytic Hierarchy Process, survey of the local population) methods of analysis. The purpose of the study is to develop a model that allows predicting the development of ecotourism and justifying strategic decisions for its sustainable development. As a result of the survey, 8 key factors affecting the development of ecotourism were identified: perceived environmental sustainability, perceived social cost, perceived economic benefits, maximizing community participation, long-term planning, community-centered economy, sense of place, and support for tourism development. Both subjective estimates (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and objective statistical data were used to determine the weights of these factors. Comparative analysis revealed discrepancies between subjective assessments and objective indicators, especially in the perception of the region’s image. The main result of the study is the development of a qualitative model that uses logistic regression to assess the impact of factors on the development of ecotourism. This model, which considers both subjective and objective data, allows to simulate various scenarios and predict the development of the industry. The results obtained make it possible to identify priority areas for the development of ecotourism in Ulytau and develop recommendations for the creation of a sustainable and socio-economically effective model for the development of ecotourism both for Ulytau and for other regions with similar conditions. The article contributes to the existing body of knowledge on sustainable tourism development by offering a multidimensional data-driven approach that goes beyond theoretical discussions.