Prediction of Typhoon Pathway Points Based on Zhang Extrapolation (ZE) Formula for Points 1 to 3

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Zhang extrapolation (ZE) formulas, on the basis of equally spaced time point sequence, in predicting typhoon pathways using quite limited historical data. The ZE formulas for 1 through 3 points are tested on typhoons Saudel, Molave, and Krovanh, using a dataset from the Wenzhou typhoon network (WTN). Statistical analyses reveal that the point-1 extrapolation consistently offers superior accuracy, with mean absolute error and great-circle distance metrics satisfying practical requirements. Comparisons with other methods show the proposed ZE formulas deliver higher precision while keeping simplicity, greatly enhancing their applicabilities in maritime safety and emergency response.