Macroeconomic Drivers of Sustainable Tourism Development in Bangladesh: An <scp>ARDL</scp> Bounds Testing Approach

ABSTRACT Tourism serves as a critical driver of economic development, yet its relationship with macroeconomic and socio‐political factors remains underexplored in emerging economies like Bangladesh. This study examines the long‐run and short‐run impacts of macroeconomic drivers, including CO₂ emissions, GDP growth, inflation, population growth, road safety, refugee population, and tourism services, on inbound tourism in Bangladesh, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The findings reveal that while CO₂ emissions have a short–term positive impact associated with industrial growth, they negatively affect tourism in the long run due to environmental degradation. Road safety challenges and socio‐political instability, including terrorism and refugee influx, significantly deter tourism. Conversely, improvements in infrastructure positively influence tourism demand over time. By integrating sustainability into tourism strategies, this research highlights the alignment of tourism development with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). Practical implications include adopting cleaner energy initiatives, improving road safety, and fostering inclusivity through gender‐focused entrepreneurship and refugee integration. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of sustainable tourism in developing nations and offers actionable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic growth with environmental and social considerations.