Bayesian Network-based Inferential Analysis of Xigou Reservoir Overtopping Accident

With the development of society and the increasing tension of water resources, the importance of reservoir management has become increasingly prominent. In March 2021, a significant overtop-ping accident occurred at the Xigou Dam, an auxiliary project of the Xiaolangdi Water Conservancy Project (also known as the Xigou Reservoir). The direct cause of the accident was an electrical failure, but it also involved subjective factors such as low risk awareness and weak daily management. This paper extracts 17 scenario nodes from the "Xigou Reservoir Overtopping" accident through scenario analysis and constructs a scenario Bayesian network model by analyzing the progression of the accident. The conditional probability of a node is calculated using the expert scoring method to compute the state probability of the node. Finally, the probabilistic changes in the states of ‘water level’, ‘casualties’ and ‘economic losses’ are analysed by adjusting the prior probabilities of the selected nodes. In the development of this accident, the conditions of equipment maintenance and the implementation of emergency response activities have a significant im-pact on the accident progression. Under conditions of normal equipment maintenance or active emergency response, the probability of the 'water level status' being normal increases by over 20%. Additionally, under normal staff supervision, the probability of the 'water level status' being normal also increases by 14%. The analysis of projected accidents highlights the substantial impact of human factors on these incidents. Therefore, it is crucial to establish robust personnel supervision mechanisms and implement effective equipment maintenance plans to prevent and mitigate risks.