Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model
A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100 m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.
Authors
- LuAnne Thompson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8295-0533)
- Wenju Cai (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6520-0829)
- Huiwang Gao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4274-0811)
- Yang Gao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6444-6544)
- Kristen A. Davis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8925-0433)
- Lai-Yung Ruby Leung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467)
- Jakob Zscheischler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629)
- Lixin Wu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4694-5531)
- Binglin Qu
- Xiuwen Guo
- Shaoqing Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6569-9842)
- Deliang Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0288-5618)
Institutions
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Xiamen University (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- University of Washington (US)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Irvine University (US)
- Institute of Earth Environment (CN)
- Ocean University of China (CN)
- University of Gothenburg (SE)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2024-12-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54946-z
- Citations
- 7
- Primary Topic
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.37
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Battelle
- Stiftelsen för Miljöstrategisk Forskning
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
- Office of Science
- National Key Research and Development Program of China
- Biological and Environmental Research
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory