Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene

Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth's ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels. We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene GMSL and ice volume. We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) GMSL exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5ka, reaching 0.24 m (-3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3.2ka; Antarctica was likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7ka; GMSL rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years; and by 2060, GMSL will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2024-12-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0
Citations
22
Primary Topic
Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
8.28

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article

Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene

Jacqueline Austermann, Torsten Albrecht, Robert E. Kopp, Nicole Sophia Khan et al.
22 citations
Nature Communications
Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
8.28
article

Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene

Jacqueline Austermann, Torsten Albrecht, Robert E. Kopp, Nicole Sophia Khan, Roger Creel, Jonathan Kingslake
article en
22 citations

Abstract

Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth's ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels. We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene GMSL and ice volume. We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) GMSL exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5ka, reaching 0.24 m (-3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3.2ka; Antarctica was likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7ka; GMSL rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years; and by 2060, GMSL will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 15(1)
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), Leibniz Association (DE), Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History (DE), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US), Columbia University (US), University of Hong Kong (HK)
National Science Foundation, Past Global Changes, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Akademie der Naturwissenschaften, National Institutes of Health
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
8.28
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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