The impact of the Belt and Road Policy on economic development — taking Australia and Pakistan as examples

Quantitative assessment of the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the economic development of countries along the Belt and Road is one of the foundations for measuring the development status of the Belt and Road Initiative and formulating future development plans. With the steady implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, the economies of countries along the Belt and Road have achieved significant improvement in many fields, and the disadvantages of the existing evaluation methods lacking the support of corresponding data models have become increasingly apparent. Therefore, in view of the above problems, this paper proposes an economic impact assessment method of the Belt and Road Initiative based on the GVAR hybrid model, which realizes the quantitative analysis of the economic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Firstly, the GVAR model is constructed based on the VAR model. Then, on the basis of the GVAR model, the weight matrix W, which is used to represent the interdependence between countries, is introduced to construct a hybrid model to represent national GDP. Then, considering the impact model, the dynamic response of GDP to economic influencing factors is mapped to the dynamic response of GVAR model to shocks, realizing the assessment of the economic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Finally, taking Australia and Pakistan as examples, this paper discusses the dynamic impact of inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, credit activities and net foreign assets on GDP, and quantitatively evaluates the existing construction achievements of the Belt and Road Initiative, which provides a solid theoretical basis and data support for the economic strategy adjustment of the countries along the Belt and Road under the background of globalization.