A “U-shaped” Relationship between Energy Transition and Technological Innovation

Achieving sustainable development and putting the "dual carbon" plan into practice require a shift from "traditional fossil energy" to "clean and sustainable energy." However, existing research mainly focuses on measuring energy transition based on energy structure or energy system performance, often neglecting the importance of the supporting environment for energy transition. To address this gap, this article presents a comprehensive energy transition index that incorporates both the performance of the energy system in multiple aspects and the supportive environment for energy transition. The research conducts a thorough evaluation of the energy transition process across 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2022, empirically analyzing the effects of technological innovation on this transition through the use of panel data. The results show that: 1. During the period 2008-2022, the regions with a high energy transition index were Beijing, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, and Qinghai, while the lowest index were found in Shanxi and Hebei. 2. The maximum difference in the energy transition index between regions has increased in the meantime. 3. The influence of technological innovation on energy transition exhibits a U-shaped relationship, initially hindering the transition before eventually facilitating it. Based on this, this article proposes some policy recommendations for regions in backward to promote their energy transition.