Passenger car market sales forecast based on ARIMA and LASSO combined model

As an important means of transportation for modern families, the market demand for passenger cars shows an increasing trend, and it is of great significance to accurately predict the passenger car market sales for automobile enterprises to formulate reasonable production plans and marketing strategies, as well as for governmental departments to formulate relevant industrial policies and promote the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. In the prediction of passenger car market sales, this paper establishes an ARIMA model by considering the influence of historical sales data on the one hand, and establishes a Lasso regression model by considering the economic and social indexes related to the sales of the passenger car market on the other hand, and establishes a weighted combined model based on a combination of the two models, which incorporates the influences of the historical sales and economic and social factors related to the sales. The combined model includes the influence of historical sales volume and economic and social factors related to sales volume at the same time, which makes the forecast error of sales volume from January to June 2024 smaller and more explanatory, and can accurately predict the market development trend, which has good application and guiding significance in practice.