Constituency Service and Valence Voting in Semi-Competitive Elections: Theory and Evidence From China

While extensive research has delved into various factors shaping vote choice in democratic elections, few have investigated vote choice in the semi-competitive elections, where the ruling party typically secures unequivocal victory. But the noteworthy phenomenon of independent candidates winning votes and even seats in these elections at the local level suggests that vote choice in autocracies merits scholarly attention. This study examines China’s local congressional elections using a mixed-methods research design that integrates case studies and a conjoint experiment. We find evidence in support of valence voting: long-term constituency service increases vote share by strengthening popular preference and reducing electoral repression and manipulation faced by independent candidates. Our finding suggests that constituency service is an effective strategy of persuading and mobilizing voters in semi-competitive elections, shedding light on a nuanced relationship between incumbents and challengers in weakly institutionalized regimes.