Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Harirod-Murghab River Basin

Climate change represents one of the paramount challenges confronting humanity today. The profound impacts of phenomena such as changes in precipitation patterns, global warming, polar ice melt, floods, and the onset of untimely and extreme temperatures worldwide have instilled a sense of urgency and concern. This critical issue has been placed at the forefront of climate change. To understand the ramifications of climate change on water resources within the Harirud-Marghab River basin, an analysis of average precipitation and temperature variations (including minimum, maximum, and average values) across different time frames (annual, monthly, seasonal, and during wet and dry seasons) has been conducted using data from hydrometeorological stations in the catchment area from 1979 to 2022. the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and PCI methods were chosen as the analytical tools. The findings reveal a notable decline in annual rainfall within the Harirud-Marghab River basin, with a pronounced reduction during the winter, the basin's primary water season. Conversely, an increase in seasonal rainfall has been observed in summer and autumn. Overall, rainfall in this river basin tends to be intense, occurring on limited days throughout the year. Furthermore, a significant rise in the annual average temperature has been documented, alongside fluctuations and changes in water flow across most stations within the basin. Consequently, the surface water resources of the Harirud-Marghab River basin have experienced a substantial decrease, amounting to approximately 29% of its capacity, equivalent to a reduction of 0.98 billion cubic meters of water.