Insights into the 3D thermal structure of interplate earthquakes in the Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone

Throughout the 20th century, several large megathrust earthquakes were observed in the Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone which widely ruptured plate interfaces, causing considerable damage and loss of life. The occurrence of earthquakes in subduction zones is thought to be closely related to the thermal structure of the incoming plate. However, in the case of the subducting Nazca Plate beneath the Colombia–Ecuador zone, the thermal structure remains unclear, especially its hydraulic distribution. On the basis of 3D thermal models, we present new insights into the plate interface conditions of Colombia–Ecuador interplate and megathrust earthquakes. We show that the plate geometry strongly affects the along-strike thermal structure of the slab beneath Colombia and Ecuador, with the subduction of the Carnegie Ridge playing an important role. Our results further reveal that the unique geometry of the Nazca Plate is the primary reason for the relatively high temperatures of the slab beneath Colombia. We suggest that the positions of the 100–200 °C and 350–450 °C isotherms on the plate interface determine the updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone. For Colombia–Ecuador interplate earthquakes, the released fluids control the distribution of shallow-depth earthquakes, whereas the age and geometry of the slab control the distribution of intermediate-depth earthquakes. The average temperature of the plate interface at the upper limit of large megathrust earthquakes is hotter than previously thought, which is more consistent with our understanding of the Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone. We predict that the potential location of future large seismic events could be in the rupture zone of past seismic events or offshore of northern Colombia.