Evaluating the impact of macroeconomic instability on export turnover of ASEAN countries

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic instability on the export volumes of ASEAN countries over the period of 30 years from 1993 to 2022. Using secondary data sourced from the World Bank, the analysis focuses on seven ASEAN countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, ensuring the data reliability. The key macroeconomic indicators selected to measure the instability in this research are GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and external debt. Applying the ARDL research model alongside descriptive statistics, Unit Root tests, Johansen cointegration tests, and Pairwise Granger causality tests, the findings reveal that macroeconomic instability has an impact on export volumes both in the short term and long term. Among the macroeconomic indicators, GDP exhibits the most profound relationship with export volumes over both time frames; while external debt has a negative influence, and inflation shows a positive impact on export volumes in the long term. These insights provide a valuable foundation for economists and policymakers to have timely and accurate policy decisions aimed at mitigating market instability and fostering sustainable growth in the ASEAN region. For ASEAN countries, particularly those with significant export volumes such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, the research proposes several policy recommendations, including: (1) fostering GDP growth is crucial for both short-term and long-term economic stability; (2) external debt should be leveraged only in the short term but requires careful consideration in the long-term; (3) maintaining reasonable levels of inflation and unemployment is essential for balanced economic development.