OPTIMIZATION OF HOURLY OUTAGE SCHEDULES AND MONITORING OF THEIR IMPLEMENTATION BY THE ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATOR

An integrated approach is proposed for the formation and implementation of measures to limit power supply in the conditions of a shortage of generated power in the power system of Ukraine caused by military operations. The software implementation of modules for planning schedules of hourly customer outages (SHO), registration of actions of dispatchers of the distribution system operator (DSO) on the implementation of SHO, graphical display of SHO for informing the population, internal control over the implementation of SHO based on data from the automated system of commercial electricity metering (ASCEM) is proposed. A method and program for optimizing the SHO was developed to ensure uniformity of power supply restrictions to consumers. The volume of the limitation was determined by the ratio of the projected electricity consumption and the maximum load, as determined by the National Energy Company. To find the optimal solution, the following criteria were used: the accuracy of compliance with the maximum load should be maximized, the duration of outages for individual customers should be minimal, and the uniformity of outages for individual customers should be maximized. To enable the practical implementation of optimal solutions, a number of constraints were taken into account, including the presence of critical infrastructure consumers and the need to maintain their backup power supply, a given frequency of outages for household consumers, different levels of economic consequences of power outages for different regions, the current state (gradual decrease in resource) of switching equipment at distribution power substations, etc. The ensemble Random Forest method was used to forecast consumer load. To determine the weighting coefficients of the components of the objective function, the methods of expert evaluation and sensitivity analysis were used. To find the optimum, the method of optimized search of options with weighting is used. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and algorithms has been confirmed during the industrial operation of the complex of programs.