METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE RISKS OF ACTIVE POWER IMBALANCES IN LOCAL POWER SYSTEMS

The current trends in the development of Ukraine's energy sector, driven by global climate change and Ukraine's accession to the global community's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to the development of renewable energy sources. The introduction of renewable energy sources into distribution power grids could not but affect the structure and operation of the latter. After the integration of renewable energy sources, distribution networks are transformed from predominantly radial ones to those with two-way flows and consumers can be supplied with power both from their own dispersed energy sources (RES) and from centralized sources - power system substations. In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources in the total generation in distribution networks has reached 20-30%. And this share will continue to grow. Therefore, distribution system operators are facing new challenges related to the efficiency of networks containing dispersed energy sources. After all, given the change in weather factors and the instability of generation from sources such as solar and wind power plants, the nature of generation of some RES is probabilistic and not always predictable. The development of renewable energy has led to new challenges and the need to find new models and methods to improve the efficiency of distribution power grids and local power systems. The full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and the destruction of energy facilities led to interruptions in electricity supply. Further attacks on power plants and substations could exacerbate the power shortage and lead to an energy crisis and large material damage. As an alternative, renewable energy sources can support electricity supply companies and provide some consumers with electricity under martial law in difficult conditions of the electricity system. The volatility of some renewable energy sources has a negative impact on the balance reliability and sustainability of the power system. When forecasting RES generation, there are risks of active power imbalances in local power systems. It is possible to reduce the probability of imbalances and, as a result, penalties for RES owners by developing methods and tools for planning the modes of local power systems with RES. The purpose of this paper is to study the problem of risks in forecasting RES generation schedules. The paper solves the urgent task of improving methods and tools for optimizing the normal modes of power systems and distribution power grids with RES. The existing risk assessment methods that can be used to analyze the occurrence of active power imbalances in local power systems when planning operating modes in the modern energy market are analyzed