Transboundary effects of EU environmental policy: before and after European Green Deal

EU environmental policy primarily addresses the internal problems of the Union. At the same time, due to the size of the EU economy and the vigorous nature of the policy, numerous transboundary effects can arise, resulting in environmental changes in third countries and, indirectly, worldwide. The article examines the negative and positive transboundary externalities of EU environmental policy and speculates on the future international effects of the European Green Deal. The author describes typical examples of externalities of the European environmental regulation. It is revealed that the international trade is the main channel of their distribution. Their negative impact on third countries usually takes the form of excessive use of national natural resources, as well as the form of “carbon leakage” which stems from the EU emissions trading system. Positive externalities encompass the Brussels effect and demonstration effect and contribute to the development of environmental regulation in partner countries. The energy reform and carbon border adjustment mechanism are identified as the most important provisions of the Green Deal’s international dimension. The potential impact of the Green Deal’s transboundary externalities is described in the form of scenarios for different groups of countries. African hydrocarbon exporters are expected to suffer the greatest damage. At the same time, they have the best prospects for green transformation. Other countries are likely to be forced to speed up the decarbonisation of their economies in the medium term, while the most developed and powerful of them, such as the United States and China, stand to benefit by the expanding demand for environmental technologies