Comprehensive methodology for assessing risks in foreign trade transactions

The relevance of the study is due to the insufficient development of a systematic approach to risk management at each stage of a foreign trade transaction, which is especially important in the context of increased uncertainty and external challenges, as well as the need to create a comprehensive methodological toolkit that allows identifying, assessing and minimizing the risks typical for all stages of foreign trade transactions. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risks of a foreign trade transaction, which includes a methodological toolkit for managing risks at all stages of a foreign trade operation, including finding a supplier and conducting preliminary negotiations, concluding a foreign trade contract, paying for and shipping goods from the seller’s warehouse, delivering goods to the buyer and customs clearance, and receiving goods by the buyer. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an original methodology that links each stage of a foreign trade transaction (from finding a supplier to receiving goods) with its inherent risks, which allows for targeted assessment and development of measures to minimize them. The authors tested their proposed methodology using the example of a conditional foreign trade transaction for the supply of equipment from China. The result of the study was a summary table of the calculation of expenses and profitability of a foreign trade transaction, demonstrating the practical applicability of the proposed methodology using the example of calculations of a transaction for importing equipment from China. The findings indicate that the developed methodology allows for forecasting, identifying and managing risks at each stage of a foreign trade transaction, including finding a supplier, concluding a contract, paying for goods, transportation, customs clearance and receiving goods, and the universality of the methodology determines its practical significance and the possibility of application by companies in the field of foreign economic activity.