TRENDS OF FLUCTUATION IN AVERAGE PRICES OF DAIRY PRODUCTS IN UKRAINE IN 2003-2023

Dairy products in Ukraine are in a high demand among the population of all age groups. Milk production is a source of useful nutrients that support vital processes in humans. According to the official statistics, the long-term decrease in milk production in farms is due to the decrease in the number of dairy cattle that is lasting from year to year. At the same time, our country has access to foreign markets and is effectively developing the domestic one. It is worth noting that the internal market has its own peculiarities. It is the main task to understand what the specific features are of this market. Various characteristics can indicate the peculiarities and trends of milk and dairy production. The price value is one of the indicators that can respond to changes in demand, the emergence of competitors, updates in legislation, and other factors. Data from the official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine were used to analyze changes in behavior of the dairy industry that may be appeared in the price fluctuations. Investigated data base includes sales prices of milk and dairy products for 254 months for the period of 2003-2023. Fourier transformation was applied in the research. It allowed us to reconstruct general trends and build a forecast for several months ahead. Based on the results of the analysis, formulated conclusions include several points. The first one is about the deterministic trend of price growth with seasonal changes, but almost significant rapid ups and downs (the exception is 2017 year, when there was a rapid increase in product prices). The seasonality is manifested in a double change of direction according to the scheme: half a year of decline and half a year of rise, then the algorithm repeats. As usual, decreases can be observed in spring and summer months. The second point of conclusion is about controlled processes in the price forming in contemporary milk market conditions. Moreover, it would be reasonable to find factors that form such a stable tendency or keep prices on this unchangeable trajectory despite negative impacts, such as inflation, threats of war, population demand, reduction in purchase prices for raw materials, shortage in milk production and others. Data analysis was performed using Python tools.