Large-scale Commercial Agricultural Investment: Implications for Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in Guba District, Northwest Ethiopia

Large-Scale Commercial Agricultural Investment (LSCAI) is expected to improve the living conditions of host communities while ensuring the productive use of natural resources. However, its impact on the local environment and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics was not well investigated in Guba District, northwest Ethiopia. This study aimed to examine the implications of LSCAI projects on LULC change dynamics. To achieve this, the study employed a concurrent triangulation design, combining of qualitative and quantitative data. Data for the study were collected from primary and secondary sources, including satellite images with ground verification. The LULC map was prepared and image classification conducted by employing Arc GIS10.5 and ERDAS 2014. Structured interviews were conducted with 351 households, and unstructured in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants. The study revealed a significant increase in LULC over time. Dense forest cover decreased by 0.61% and open woodlands decreased by 1.25% per year. In contrast, cropland expanded by 1.79% per year between 1990 and 2019. Particularly, between 2010 and 2019, the rate of cropland expansion reached 3.25% per year due to the influx of LSCAI projects. This indicates that the expansion of LSCAI projects has nearly doubled the rate of LULC change in the study area. During the key informant interviews, it was confirmed that the period from 2010 to 2019 witnessed substantial expansion of LSCAI projects in the study area. Local communities also expressed concerns about the potential threats posed by LSCAI, including deforestation, land dispossession, malpractices, violent conflicts, and increased charcoal production. The main drivers of severe LULC are anthropogenic factors that promote the expansion of LSCAI. It is recommended that in the process of LSCAI, land identification and transfer to developers should be done in consultation with local communities, and the policy direction on natural resource utilization should be revisited to ensure the most sustainable use of land resources.