Scenario-based Assessment of Decarbonized Transport Sector in Thailand towards Carbon Neutrality 2050

Thailand's transport sector has been one of the highest CO2 emitters for several decades in the country due to the excessive increase in transport service demand and the high reliance on high-carbon-intensity petroleum fuels. This article discusses the potential of CO2 reduction in the transport sector in Thailand to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is adopted to estimate the future energy demand and CO2 emission between 2020 and 2050. This study designs two main scenarios, namely the Baseline (BAS) and the Decarbonization (DEC) scenarios. The BAS scenario is developed in a business-as-usual approach with frozen technologies, while the DEC scenario is constructed as a CO2 countermeasure by including multiple low carbon technologies such as i) improving fuel economy efficiency of engines, ii) promoting electric vehicles (EVs), iii) utilizing fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and iv) promoting mass transportation. The results indicate that by 2050, the transport sector's total energy demand will significantly increase to approximately 49,906 ktoe, with diesel, gasoline, and jet kerosene accounting for the majority of fuel consumption. In the BAS scenario, total CO2 emissions in the transport sector are estimated to be 119,737 ktCO2eq. By full implementation of the CO2 countermeasures and low carbon technologies in the decarbonization scenario, the total carbon emission in the transport sector is estimated to be 30,582 ktCO2 by 2050, which is in line with carbon neutrality pathways of Thailand. However, the nation-wide transport action plan should be developed in order to promote such sustainable transport technologies.