Identifying gaps in nature reserves by integrating future ecosystem service priority areas

Incorporating ecosystem services (ES) into nature reserves (NR) planning has significant impacts on the environment and human wellbeing. However, the effects of uncertain future socio-environmental dynamics on ES conservation and the gaps in existing NR are unclear. The present study aims to integrate multiple ES dynamics into future NR planning and quantify the gaps with existing NR. We first presented a methodological scheme to assess ES dynamics under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China during from 2015 to 2100. We then employed a representativeness–vulnerability framework to identify priority conservation areas within the YREB. Except for SSP1-1.9 and SSP4-3.4, all scenarios projected an increase in ecosystem service value (ESV). SSP3-7.0 and SSP4-3.4 were expected to induce the largest ESV changes, with increases of 6.35% and decreases of 6.08%, respectively, during 2015–2100. By integrating future ESV changes into NR planning, we identified priority conservation areas at different time points from 2015 to 2100. Through overlay analysis, we derived bottom-line conservation areas across multiple scenarios and timeframes. The identified bottom-line conservation areas are mainly distributed in eastern Sichuan, western Guizhou, eastern Hubei, and southern Jiangsu, covering 8.62% of the YREB. Notably, only 4.81% of the existing NR areas in the YREB overlap with the identified bottom-line conservation areas. Our analyses reveal gaps between the existing NR and the potential future priority conservation areas in the YREB when considering multiple ES. We emphasize the need to define bottom-line conservation areas based on ES dynamics under various scenarios to address future uncertainties and complexities.