The Economic Potential Impact of Climate Change on The Gambia’s Agriculture Sector: A Multi-Market Model Analysis

Given the global climate challenges, countries must comprehend how climate change will impact agricultural commodity prices, production and consumption, agricultural trade, and food security. The study used the General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS), a multi-market model approach, with the base year of 2015, to assess the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector, given three scenarios—hydro-meteorological impact, agricultural productivity impact and their combined total effect. The results show a decline in demand for food across The Gambia. Seed demand will increase, whilst animal feed demand will decline over time. Crop yields for groundnuts (the main cash crop) and rice (the main staple crop) by 2040 will decline by 11.09% and 13.32%, respectively, given the combined total effect. The Gambia will continue to depend on the importation of basic necessities, given its food trade deficits over time. Average food prices will increase by 16.2%; consequently, The Gambia will not be able to attain food self-sufficiency; rather, food insecurity will continually be acute, leading to increased prices and decreased production and consumption. Thus, the government should increase investment in the agriculture sector, especially in crops and livestock that are resilient to adverse climate conditions.