Data-driven causal behaviour modelling from trajectory data: A case for fare incentives in public transport

Behaviour modelling has been widely explored using both statistical and machine learning techniques, primarily relying on analyzing correlations to understand passenger responses under different conditions and scenarios. However, correlation alone does not imply causation. This paper introduces a data-driven causal behaviour modelling approach, comprising two phases: causal discovery and causal inference. Causal discovery phase uses Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm to learn a directed acyclic graph that captures the causal relationships among variables. Causal inference phase estimates the corresponding model parameters and infers (conditional) causal effects of interventions designed to influence user behaviour. The method is validated by comparing the results with those from conventional modelling approaches (logistic regression and expert knowledge) using smart card data from a real-world use case on a pre-peak fare discount incentive program in the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway system. The results highlight that the purely data-driven causal discovery method can produce reasonable causal graph. The method can also quantify the behavioural impacts of the incentive, identify key influencing factors, and estimate the corresponding causal effects. The overall causal effect of the incentive is approximately 0.7 %, with about 3 % of the population changing behaviour from previous statistical analysis. Interestingly, passengers with the highest flexibility exhibit a negative response, while those with medium-to-high flexibility demonstrate 3 times of the general level of responsiveness. The approach initiates the data-driven, causal modelling of human behaviour dynamics to support policy developments and managerial interventions. • Introduce causal inference of behavior changes under incentives using smart card data in public transport. • Develop and validate that the purely data-driven Peter-Clark model can produce reasonable causal graphs. • Results show that the causal effect of incentive (0.7%) is lower than the statistical analysis (2.5%).