Modeling of the Climate Impacts on the Boreal Forests of European Russia in the 21st Century

The predicted changes in timber storages and vegetation potential productivity in the taiga zone of European Russia in the 21st century is analyzed. The analysis is based on the ensemble climate change projections carried out with the MGO regional climate model and detailed calculations with the atmospheric boundary layer model. The return period of meteorological droughts in the middle and late 21st century is estimated, and the changes in the index characterizing moisture supply of plants during droughts are shown. It is demonstrated that the predicted changes in productivity and timber storages under climate warming, which are calculated based on future climate normals, can be refined by accounting for the intensity and frequency of droughts. The use of the correlation relationships describing the link between the climate normals of average annual temperature and precipitation and timber storages to estimate future timber storages by the end of the 21st century allows taking into account adverse effects of droughts and deficiency of available soil moisture on the state of plant communities.