Sustainability in transit: Assessing the economic case for electric bus adoption in the UK

The decarbonisation of the transport sector is central to the UK's net-zero strategy. This study evaluates the economic viability of depot-charged single-decker electric bus fleets by integrating vehicle, crew, and charging scheduling into a total cost of ownership analysis. Our results indicate that today's electrified bus fleets are roughly cost comparable to their traditional diesel counterparts. However, the cost disparity varies depending on the timetabling scenario, such that smaller operations continue to require subsidisation. We conclude that further battery price reductions and a more targeted subsidy system are critical to bridging the cost gap between the two propulsion technologies in a way which maximises taxpayers' value for money. • Total cost of ownership study incorporating vehicle, crew, and charging scheduling. • Includes time-of-use pricing, non-linear charging, battery degradation and sizing. • The cost gap between electric and diesel bus fleets depends on the timetable. • Smaller operations require greater subsidisation to achieve cost parity. • Limited electric bus range creates additional operational complexity.