Dynamic responses to smoking bans: Evidence from young adults in a developing country

Smoking bans have been widely implemented, despite mixed evidence on their effectiveness in reducing smoking prevalence. This paper provides novel insights into the dynamic impacts of smoking bans in the context of Brazil, a large developing country with 18.4 million regular smokers in 2013. Our estimation strategy exploits the staggered implementation of comprehensive smoking bans in Brazilian state capitals using an event-study framework. We also leverage the variation in policy enforcement across cities. Our results indicate that bans reduced smoking prevalence by 18% among young adults, particularly when rigorously enforced. This effect is primarily driven by smoking cessation, while the impact on initiation is relatively modest. This policy change prevented roughly USD 87 million in healthcare costs in the treated cities. • Comprehensive bans reduced smoking prevalence by 18% among young adults. • These effects are mainly driven by strongly enforced bans. • Cessation explains 60% of the effects, with the remainder attributed to initiation. • Smoking bans prevented USD 87 million in healthcare costs in the treated cities.