Análisis de riesgo de un sistema nogalero de la provincia de Catamarca

The economic risk faced by a family walnut system that operates three hectares and has begun a process of technological reconversion consisting of the replacement of varieties and greater added value in the product sold, is quantified. The system is characterized in its structural and functional components (productive resources that it has and technology that it applies) and then, the economic results are estimated for the current values ””of price, yield and percentages of pulp and shell nuts sold. These variables are then randomized through triangular distributions, whose parameters (maximum, modal and minimum) are obtained from expert informants and market data. The distribution of results obtained (income in $/year) is contrasted with different points or critical levels and the frequency and intensity with which they are not covered is measured. From there, the risk typology of the system is defined.