Anticipatory actions: lessons from the storm Ana in Mocuba district, Mozambique

Abstract In January 2022, the Mozambique Red Cross provided non-food items to people who were forecasted to be impacted by flooding from the tropical storm Ana in the district of Mocuba, Zambezia province, Mozambique. This was an activation of their anticipatory action protocol, an innovative mechanism for forecast-based action. While anticipatory action is growing rapidly around the world, there is a lack of evidence on the effectiveness of different anticipatory actions across hazards. In this study, we compare reported health outcomes and asset losses from a survey of beneficiaries of an anticipatory action program in Mozambique, implemented by the Mozambique Red Cross. Given the short warning time, Mozambique Red Cross was able to provide non-food items, namely early warning messages, buckets, cups, mosquito nets, soaps, and COVID-19 masks to 855 number of people 24h before the flooding occurred. Using propensity score matching, we did not find statistically significant differences in health outcomes loss of assets or personal documents during the flood event, between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries (comparison group). The lack of observable statistical differences between the groups could be due to either the late timing of intervention or a lack of tangible utility of the non-food items for the intended objectives. Our findings suggest that early warning and action need to be backed by proper and timely logistical and organizational investments and tailored to local contexts if they are to bear significant results. Further investment in anticipatory action systems should ensure that actors have the infrastructure and personnel ready to act quickly enough based on the forecast.