Decoupling Relationship Analysis Between Carbon Emissions and Industry Development of Urban Rail Transit in China

Abstract As the scale of development continues to expand, carbon emissions of urban rail transit (URT) in China have gradually increased each year, posing certain pressure on the carbon emission reduction efforts in the URT industry. To evaluate the current status of low-carbon development in the URT industry, this paper first constructs an annual carbon emission accounting model for URT that considers both the construction and operation processes. Based on this model, the annual carbon emissions of URT in China from 2015 to 2023 are calculated. Furthermore, based on decoupling theory, the relationship between carbon emissions and industry development in URT is explored from both the construction and operation aspects. The results show that: (1) From 2015 to 2023, the total carbon emissions of URT in China increased significantly from 14.425 million tons to 24.7072 million tons. The proportion of carbon emissions from construction is higher during the study period, but the growth rate of carbon emissions from operation is faster. (2) The order of carbon emissions from URT in different regions from largest to smallest is: East > West > Central > Northeast. (3) During the study period, the carbon emissions from URT construction in China were weakly decoupled from the operational lines. (4) There was an expansive coupling relationship between carbon emissions from URT operation and passenger transport turnover in China. These findings can provide some guidance for the sustainable development of the URT industry.