Influencing Mechanisms of Changes to Agricultural Water Use in the Yellow River Basin: The Case of Wuwei City, China

Agricultural water use is a crucial component of the water supply and demand balance in the Yellow River Basin, accounting for an average of 75% of the total water usage annually. Understanding the mechanisms influencing the evolution of agricultural water use in various cities within the Yellow River Basin is of significant practical importance for maintaining a stable water balance and promoting high-quality agricultural development in the region. The factors affecting the evolution of agricultural water use are categorized into seven major groups: water resource endowment, water use conditions, hydraulic construction, among others. These encompass 21 quantitative indicators such as total water resources, grain sowing area and agricultural production policy indicators (APPI), which can either drive or inhibit agricultural water use. By comparing and analyzing the influencing factors selected in different studies, and considering the differences between various methods, the comprehensive contribution rates of these factors are calculated to identify the driving and inhibiting factors affecting the trend of agricultural water use in the Yellow River Basin. The study reveals that different time periods and cities have distinct driving and inhibiting indicators for agricultural water use. Overall, time series analysis shows that the GDP of the primary agricultural economy ([Formula: see text] is often a driving indicator of agricultural water use, while annual precipitation (AP), water-saving irrigation machinery (WSIM) in agricultural modernization, and APPI are often inhibiting indicators. The findings provide a basis and guidance for formulating effective water resource management strategies and agricultural development policies.