Prediction of GNSS Velocity Accuracies Using Machine Learning Algorithms for Active Fault Slip Rate Determination and Earthquake Hazard Assessment

GNSS technology utilizes satellite signals to determine the position of a point on Earth. Using this location information, the GNSS velocities of the points can be calculated. GNSS velocity accuracies are crucial for studies requiring high precision, as fault slip rates typically range within a few millimeters per year. This study employs machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict GNSS velocity accuracies for fault slip rate estimation and earthquake hazard analysis. GNSS data from four CORS stations collected over 1-, 2-, and 3-year intervals with observation durations of 2, 4, 6, 8, and 12 h, were analyzed to generate velocity estimates. Position accuracies, observation intervals, and corresponding velocity accuracies formed two datasets for the East and North components. ML models, including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Multiple Linear Regression, were used to model the relationship between position and velocity accuracies. The findings reveal that the Random Forest, which makes more accurate and reliable predictions by evaluating many decision trees together, achieved over 90% accuracy for both components. Velocity accuracies of ±1.3 mm/year were obtained for 1-year interval data, while accuracies of ±0.6 mm/year were achieved for the 2- and 3-year intervals. Three campaigns were deemed sufficient for Holocene faults with higher slip rates. However, for Quaternary faults with lower slip rates, longer observation periods or additional campaigns are necessary to ensure reliable velocity estimates. This highlights the need for GNSS observation planning based on fault activity.