A Non-Phenomenological Altman-Type Model

We consider a situation when due to a crisis a deficit of credit ability of banks arises while real sector enterprises still have to refinance their comparatively short-term debt having very high current capital return rate while total capital return rate might simultaneously be negative and substantially negative. So, we have scarce supply and considerably inelastic demand with very high-level (nearly)horizontal saturation due to the high current capital return rate. That may easily blow up the current bank rate, pushing real sector enterprises to bankruptcy. All that produces a parametrically dependent discrete mapping that depends on the same parameters as the Z-score classical Altman model. Parametrical surfaces of bifurcations of this mapping may be considered as some analog of fixed Z-score surfaces, while the corresponding scoring index, demonstrates proper dependence on the long-term return rate, debt-to-equity (debt-to-asset) ratio, and current capital share.