Explainable deep learning identifies patterns and drivers of freshwater harmful algal blooms

The escalating magnitude, frequency, and duration of harmful algal blooms (HABs) pose significant challenges to freshwater ecosystems worldwide. However, the mechanisms driving HABs remain poorly understood, in part due to the strong regional specificity of algal processes and the uneven data availability. These complexities make it difficult to generalize HAB dynamics and effectively predict their occurrence using traditional models. To address these challenges, we developed an explainable deep learning approach using long short-term memory (LSTM) models combined with explanation techniques that can capture complex patterns and provide explainable insights into key HAB drivers. We applied this approach for algal density modeling at 102 sites in China's lakes and reservoirs over three years. LSTMs effectively captured daily algal dynamics, achieving mean and maximum Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.48 and 0.95 during testing phase. Moreover, water temperature emerged as the primary driver of HABs both nationally and in over 30% of localities, with stronger water temperature sensitivity observed in mid-to low-latitudes. We also identified regional similarities that allow for the successful transferability in modeling algal dynamics. Specifically, using fine-tuned transfer learning, we improved the prediction accuracy in over 75% of poorly gauged areas. Overall, LSTM-based explainable deep learning approach effectively addresses key challenges in HAB modeling by tackling both regional specificity and data limitations. By accurately predicting algal dynamics and identifying critical drivers, this approach provides actionable insights into the mechanisms of HABs, ultimately aids in the implementation of effective mitigation measures for nationwide and regional freshwater ecosystems.