ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PARASITOLOGICAL EXAMINATION OF BILE DEPENDING ON THE PHASE OF THE LUNAR CYCLE AND THE MONTH OF THE YEAR: MYTH OR REALITY?

Relevance. Currently, medicine emphasizes the biological characteristics of the organism. In this context, the study of the impact of the lunar cycle on disease incidence and human physiological activity is of particular interest. In Russian clinical practice, there is a widespread belief that the likelihood of detecting Opisthorchis eggs in bile is higher during the full moon. However, this assertion is unsubstantiated. Opisthorchiasis is a natural focal biohelminthiasis. The most intense endemic region for opisthorchiasis in the world is the Ob-Irtysh basin, which includes the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Despite the emergence of new diagnostic techniques, diagnosing opisthorchiasis remains complex and vulnerable. Therefore, we decided to analyze whether the efficiency of parasitological examination depends on the phases of the lunar cycle and the time of year. Aim. To analyze the frequency of opisthorchiasis detection depending on the day and phase of the lunar calendar, as well as the month of the year, based on the results of duodenal probing. Matherials and Methods. The frequency of opisthorchiasis detection was analyzed using duodenal probing among 361 patients over the period from 2008 to 2023. The following indicators were selected to evaluate the dependency of detection frequency: month of the year, phase of the lunar calendar (new moon, first quarter, full moon, and third quarter), and day of the lunar calendar (from 1 to 30). The results were evaluated using Poisson regression analysis and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results. The results of the Poisson regression analysis indicated that the independent variables used (days and phases of the lunar calendar) did not have a statistically significant impact on improving the model (p = 0.150 and p = 0.504, respectively). No statistically significant influence on the model was found either (p = 0.488 and p = 0.516, respectively). No statistically significant correlation between the phases of the lunar calendar and the number of opisthorchiasis detections was found using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (r = -0.108, p = 0.571). An analysis of the number of opisthorchiasis detections by specific months registered a deviation from the Poisson distribution due to the obtained overdispersion of the indicator. Conclusions. Using the model to predict opisthorchiasis detections based on the day or phase of the lunar cycle is not feasible. Poisson regression analysis for estimating the number of opisthorchiasis detections by specific months is unachievable.