Calculation of indicators of volumes and structure of cargo transportation by rail within the boundaries of the North-West polygon of JSC Russian Railways in the context of shifting supply chains

Abstract. Recent changes in supply chains have significantly changed the structure and volume of rail freight transportation. Aim. To adjust the calculation methods for freight transportation volumes and structure, considering railway throughput and carrying capacity. Methods. They study utilized dynamic analysis of statistical data, an algorithm for determining the conditional cargo density in the transport and logistics complexes, and regional rail transportation forecasting until 2025. Results. Key indicators such as “freight turnover,” “volume of freight transportation,” and “freight flow structure” were re-evaluated, incorporating the impact of “railway throughput and carrying capacity.” These findings are crucial for the planning and design of new rail infrastructure. The planned volumes of transportation and transshipment of the main types of cargo at port stations for the period 2024-2025 have been clarified, which makes it possible to increase the reliability of decisions made on the development of the railway infrastructure of the October Railway polygon, including approaches to sea ports and the North-South international transport corridor.